Sistem Prediksi Penjualan di Toko Dasni Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Tasya Kurnia Sabila; Lelah Lelah; Didik Indrayana

doi:10.51903/pixel.v15i2.813

Tasya Kurnia Sabila Universitas Muhammadiyah Sukabumi
Lelah Lelah Universitas Muhammadiyah Sukabumi
Didik Indrayana Universitas Muhammadiyah Sukabumi

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51903/pixel.v15i2.813

Keywords: Sales prediction system, Double Exponential Smoothing, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), PHP

Abstract

In developing a business or sale is to follow technological developments including the use of systems for buying and selling interactions. There are already many sellers who make buying and selling interactions online. In addition, to develop a business, it is also necessary to predict future sales so that the seller knows and prepares the number of goods to be sold to avoid shortages or excess quantities of goods. To find sales predictions, various methods can be used, one of which is Double Exponential Smoothing method. Double Exponential Smoothing method is the time series method that uses data from the past to predict the next period. The data processed is sales data at Dasni clothing stores for one year. The results obtained are in the form of a sales prediction system for the next 3 months period which calculates the level of prediction accuracy using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) with the smallest error sought because the smaller the error, the more accurate it is to predict the number of sales in the next period. This prediction system is also designed using the PHP programming language.

References

[1] S. Alfarisi, “Sistem Prediksi Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,” J. Appl. Bus. Econ., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 80–95, 2017.
[2] D. F. Tsany, B. Mulyawan, and T. Sutrisno, “Perancangan Sistem Penjualan Dan Prediksi Persediaan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web Pada Toko DY Computer,” J. Inovtex, Seri Inform., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 59–63, 2018.
[3] A. Sucipto, “Sistem Informasi Penjualan Oleh Sales Marketing Pada Pt Erlangga Mahameru,” J. Teknol. dan Sist. Inf., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 105–110, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://jim.teknokrat.ac.id/index.php/sisteminformasi.
[4] M. H. Elison, M. K. Rudy Asrianto, and M. A. Aryanto, SE, “Prediksi Penjualan Papan Bunga Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” JURSISTEKNI (Jurnal Sist. Inf. dan Teknol. Informasi), vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 45–56, 2020.
[5] R. John and S. Hansun, “Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Prediksi Penjualan Menggunakan Algoritma Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus: Pt. Sanpak Unggul),” J. Inform., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 28–35, 2017, doi: 10.9744/informatika.14.1.28-35.
[6] A. Lieberty and V. R. Imbar, “Sistem Informasi Meramalkan Penjualan Barang dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus: PD. Padalarang Jaya),” J. Tek. Inform. dan Sist. Inf., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 27–32, 2015, [Online]. Available: http://jutisi.maranatha.edu/index.php/jutisi/article/view/358/356.
[7] N. A. O. Saputri and N. Huda, “Implementasi Sistem Informasi Prediksi Hasil Penjualan Perangkat Komputer Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” J. Media Inform. Budidarma, vol. 4, no. 3, p. 806, 2020, doi: 10.30865/mib.v4i3.2253.
[8] I. Ferima Talia, I. Fitri Astuti, and P. Studi Ilmu Komputer Fakultas Ilmu Komputer dan Teknologi Informasi, “Peramalan Tingkat Kemiskinan Penduduk Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Zainal Arifin,” Pros. Semin. Nas. Ilmu Komput. dan Teknol. Inf., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 121–127, 2019.