Fajar Zaelani, M. Yusuf (2020) IMPLEMENTASI MODEL SARIMA DAN ALGORITMA GENETIKA PADA PREDIKSI PRODUKSI MINYAK BUMI. Progresif: Jurnal Ilmiah Komputer, 16 (2). pp. 1-10. ISSN 2685-0877

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Abstract

The economic future of a country relies heavily on energy sources. Energy sources are the main inputs and resources that are indispensable to all sectors. In particular, crude oil is a source of energy that later becomes fuel. Lack of precision in the management of oil energy sources caused economic damage as happened in oil-importing countries such as Indonesia. In this case, the proper forecasting of crude oil production plays an important role in projection energy and economic advancement. Underestimating crude oil production causes oil import demand that is not as required. In this study, a predictive method that integrates genetic algorithms and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) is made to take advantage of each method. The combined method can predict in a fast and efficient manner without compromising the level of predictive accuracy. According to the results of the experiment, obtained the best model results SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 in at least 10 iterations with 96.28% accuracy. The combined method results proved to be more efficient as it only required a small number of iterations.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Genetic Algoritm, Crude Oil, SARIMA Models
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi > Teknik Informatika
Depositing User:	Perpus ID UMMI
Date Deposited:	07 May 2021 03:21
Last Modified:	07 May 2021 03:21
URI:	http://eprints.ummi.ac.id/id/eprint/1686

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